Saturday, July 23, 2022

Gold price rebounds from 16-month low. Should you buy, sell or hold?

 


Gold prices are expected to remain volatile ahead of US Fed monetary policy meeting scheduled next week, believe experts.

Spot gold price is trading in the range of $1680 to $1750 per ounce range whereas MCX gold rates are trading in the range of ₹49,500 to ₹51,500 per 10 gm, say experts

Gold price today: On account of interest rate hikes by central banks across world, gold price plummeted to 16-month lows. However, spot gold price bounced back from its support price of $1680 per ounce levels and closed at $1726.40 per ounce levels on Friday, logging near 0.50 per cent intraday gain. Gold price on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) shot up ₹305 per 10 gm on Friday and finished at 50,680 levels

According to commodity market experts, spot gold price is trading in the range of ₹49,500 to ₹51,500 per 10 gm. They said that $1680 has been working as strong support for international gold price for last two years and till the yellow metal price is sustaining above these levels, one should maintain 'buy on dips' strategy. They went on to add that downward trend can be expected only when this pivotal support is breached.

According to commodity market experts, spot gold price is trading in the range of $1680 to $1750 per ounce rSpeaking on the reasons for bumpy trade pattern in gold prices, Sugandha Sachdeva, Vice President — Commodity & Currency Research at Religare Broking Ltd said, "Gold prices plummeted to a 16-month low during the week, amid rapid interest rate hikes by the key central banks in their fight against widespread inflationary pressures, which suppressed the investment appeal of the metal. However, prices managed to stage an impressive recovery from the pivotal support of the $1680 per ounce mark amid renewed concerns about the global growth outlook and widespread inflationary pressures."

Dollar index softens
Sugandha Sachdeva went on to add that softening of the dollar index enticed buying interest in gold at lower levels. On the data front, the US initial jobless claims surged for the third week in a row while the Philly Fed manufacturing index contracted for the second straight month, fueling economic growth concerns.US preliminary data for July reflected mixed activity in the US manufacturing and service sectors.

The Religare analyst said that the key highlight of the week was the ECB monetary policy meeting, wherein the European Central Bank hiked interest rates by 50 bps crossing market expectations to combat elevated inflation. The ECB president even cautioned about persistent inflationary risks as the war in Ukraine still drags on and energy price prices are holding firm. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan on expected lines maintained an accommodative stance, while raising inflation forecasts and highlighting risks to the economic outlook. However, as markets are closely eyeing Fed’s policy meeting next week, bets of a 100 bps rate hike by the US Fed have eased which has caused the greenback to witness losses for the first time in four weeks, while underpinning gold prices. Besides, the energy crisis eased in Europe as Russia resumed flows of gas to the region through a key pipeline, which lifted market sentiment.

Pivotal levels for gold prices.
Asked about important levels in regard to gold prices Anuj Gupta, Vice President — Research at IIFL Securities said, "Spot gold price is having strong support of $1680 to $1675 per ounce levels whereas immediate hurdle for the yellow metal in spot market is placed around $1750 to 1760 levels. Bullish or bearish trend in the precious metal can be assumed on breakage of either side of the range. On MCX, gold price is currently trading in the rAsked about important levels in regard to gold prices Anuj Gupta, Vice President — Research at IIFL Securities said, "Spot gold price is having strong support of $1680 to $1675 per ounce levels whereas immediate hurdle for the yellow metal in spot market is placed around $1750 to 1760 levels. Bullish or bearish trend in the precious metal can be assumed on breakage of either side of the range. On MCX, gold price is currently trading in the range of ₹49,500 to ₹51,500. Any dip in the gold price should be seen as buying opportunity till these pivotal lower levels are intact."

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